“The messes are visible first” and that can greatly alter modeling. Early models may have been too pessimistic; more recent models too optimistic.
From Marginal Revolution on 2020 04 11
Still, it means that epidemiological models will be too optimistic, rather than too pessimistic as in #1. Epidemiologists might protest that it is not the purpose of their science or models to incorporate politics, but these factors are relevant for prediction, and if you try to wash your hands of them (no pun intended) you will be wrong a lot.